Adapting agriculture to climate change: Developing promising strategies using analogue locations in Eastern and Southern Africa
Duration: 01/Jan/2011 - 31/Dec/2013
Locations: Eastern and Southern Africa / Kenya / Zimbabwe
Donor: Government department -national- state or local,Deutsche Gesellschaft for Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)-Germany
Using a combination of model-based ex ante analyses and iterative field-based research on station and in farmers’ fields, the project will test potential agricultural adaptation strategies for rainfed agriculture in the semi-arid and dry sub-humid tropics. This will be achieved through choosing four currently important crop production zones (two in Kenya and two in Zimbabwe) and then identifying corresponding ‘spatial analogue locations’ for each production zone, providing eight study locations in all. We define ‘analogue locations’ as those locations that have today the climatic characteristics that are expected tomorrow in our four chosen production zones. In defining the locations, special attention will be given to adaptation to temperature increases. Altitudinal effects on mean air temperature will facilitate this. Given the potential of ‘analogue locations’ to provide a solid basis for such research across sub-Saharan Africa, special attention will also be given to the continuous documentation and dissemination of project activities and achievements through the web, newsletters and dissemination events. A strong element of participatory research with famers within the project locations will ensure that the project activities and outputs remain relevant to their needs and expectations. Expected outputs are: Four important crop growing areas in Kenya and Zimbabwe which comprise (i) cool/dry; (ii) cool/wet; (iii) warm/dry; and (iv) warm/wet growing conditions and their temperature analogue locations, identified and fully characterized. Through the combined use of long-term daily climate data, crop growth simulation models and participatory surveys with farmers, the implications of both current and future (climate change) production risk at the study locations will be identified and quantified. Through iterative field research both on station and in farmers’ fields over a 2-year period, potential crop, soil and water management and crop genotype adaptation options will be evaluated and adaptation strategies formulated for the target locations.